Investing Talk

ash · Guest

The smart vs dumb money spread is now at -35 , this level is rarly
seen. Last time we had a spread of -35 or less was 6/9-6-21 and
6/28-7/3 pretty good buy spots if you look out 2-4 months . Other
recent -35 readings were good buy spots when you look 1-4 months
out ... 10/24/05-11/2/05 .... 4/20/05 & 4/28/05 right on the
bottom .... 8/9/04-8/13/04 right on the bottom this trade made 23.5%
if you held 4 months.... 5/17/04 is another one right on the bottom of
a move NDX was 10% higher in 6 weeks. These stats can not be ignored.
Also giving me more confidence in the above data is the
commitment of traders showed the commercial traders(smart$) reduced
there short hedges to there lowest levels in years. So this in
combination with the other sentiment measures which have been flashing
exesive bearishnish gives me more confidence in the orignal buys from
these sentiment signals and is making me more bullish 1-3 months out.
I still think these are decent levels to buy at if you
did not do any buying at lower levels. Now is a time to buy some
stocks that you have done your homework on and like for the long term.
I still have some Apr 1850 NDX puts on and will leave them on for now
want to see how the NDX doeas b/t 1765-1780 I have mentined that level
last week. But I will do some call buying based on today's smart/dumb
and commitmnet of trader data today and will buy more if we push into
todays gap. I will use Jun NDX calls for my exposure probably
1775-1800 strikes.

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http://www.istockanalyst.com/viewblogdetail.aspx?id=44