Investing Talk Investing Talk    FAQ   Search   Memberlist   Usergroups   Register   Profile   Log in to check your private messages   Log in  Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive          Investing Talk Forum Index -> Mutual Funds View previous topic :: View next topic   Author Message Steven L. Guest Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:10 am    Post subject: Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive In the past year: FSVLX: down 64% (home finance***) FIDSX: down 48% (financials) FSAIX: down 47% (airlines) FSAVX: down 35% (automotive) These are the sectors that have become fantastic bargains of late. If any of them turns around, the eventual profits from getting in near the bottom could be huge. Keep your eyes on them! *** One reason for FSVLX's outsized decline is that nearly one-fourth of its total assets were invested in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But hopefully the worst is over for those two mortgage lenders. -- Steven L. Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. Back to top   Ads Advertising Sponsor FrediFizzx Guest Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:34 am    Post subject: Re: Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive "Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlink.net> wrote in message news:Iqudnfr8utlbTOfVnZ2dnUVZ_gydnZ2d@earthlink.com... Quote: In the past year: FSVLX: down 64% (home finance***) FIDSX: down 48% (financials) FSAIX: down 47% (airlines) FSAVX: down 35% (automotive) These are the sectors that have become fantastic bargains of late. If any of them turns around, the eventual profits from getting in near the bottom could be huge. Keep your eyes on them! *** One reason for FSVLX's outsized decline is that nearly one-fourth of its total assets were invested in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But hopefully the worst is over for those two mortgage lenders. Well, you know that home finance and financials will eventually get turned around so are good buys right now for long term investors. I'm not so sure that airlines will ever be good again unless oil comes down a bunch for some funny reason. But that FSAIX is invested in other things besides straight airlines. Autos ought to get turned around also eventually. People are going to get tired of the SUV's gas hogs and trade them in for better economy sooner rather than later. Fred Back to top   Ads Advertising Sponsor -herb Guest Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:01 am    Post subject: Re: Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive "Steven L." <sdlitvin@earthlink.net> wrote in message news:Iqudnfr8utlbTOfVnZ2dnUVZ_gydnZ2d@earthlink.com... Quote: In the past year: FSVLX: down 64% (home finance***) FIDSX: down 48% (financials) FSAIX: down 47% (airlines) FSAVX: down 35% (automotive) These are the sectors that have become fantastic bargains of late. If any of them turns around, the eventual profits from getting in near the bottom could be huge. Keep your eyes on them! *** One reason for FSVLX's outsized decline is that nearly one-fourth of its total assets were invested in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But hopefully the worst is over for those two mortgage lenders. It's always tempting to 'buy low' but I'm not at all confident that the troubles are over for any of these sectors. Aren't Fannie and Freddie being pressured to raise capital by selling new shares, further diluting the value of current shares? I'd feel better about financials if I thought this whole crisis had worked its way through the system but who knows? I agree with Freddie that it is hard to see airlines as ever being profitable but I don't think it is going to help automotive as consumers switch from high profit gas guzzlers to low margin economy cars. If I saw any company shifting its product mix toward efficiency I might consider that company. This is why I like to use managed funds. Someone else can lie awake at night worrying about this. -herb Back to top   Ads Advertising Sponsor Steven L. Guest Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive -herb wrote: Quote: It's always tempting to 'buy low' but I'm not at all confident that the troubles are over for any of these sectors. I'm waiting for a sign of an incipient turnaround. The eventual bursting of the commodities bubble will cause a sharp drop in oil (and hence fuel) prices. That's just the shot in the arm that could send airline stocks and automotive stocks soaring. What could cause the commodities bubble to burst? A sharp rise in interest rates by Bernanke, causing the dollar to soar. Or the next worldwide recession, perhaps. Or even the easing of tensions in Iran and Iraq. All kinds of possibilities. Quote: Aren't Fannie and Freddie being pressured to raise capital by selling new shares, further diluting the value of current shares? But the Government is promising to buy excess equity in F&F, making the Government into a minority shareholder of F&F. So that will eat up any dilution. Quote: This is why I like to use managed funds. Someone else can lie awake at night worrying about this. If you're interested in funds that make big top-down sector bets, consider CGMFX. This past year, they went long on industrial materials and metals, and short on financials. Exactly the right strategy. -- Steven L. Email: sdlitvin@earthlinkNOSPAM.net Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me. Back to top   Ads Advertising Sponsor Evojeesus Guest Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:45 am    Post subject: Re: Valuations Are Becoming More Attractive On Jul 14, 6:26 pm, "Steven L." <sdlit...@earthlink.net> wrote: Quote: -herb wrote: It's always tempting to 'buy low' but I'm not at all confident that the troubles are over for any of these sectors. I'm waiting for a sign of an incipient turnaround. The eventual bursting of the commodities bubble will cause a sharp drop in oil (and hence fuel) prices. That's just the shot in the arm that could send airline stocks and automotive stocks soaring. I hope such a drop is going to happen as it will be a brilling chance to back up the truck and buy stocks & commodities related to energy. Quote: What could cause the commodities bubble to burst? A sharp rise in interest rates by Bernanke, causing the dollar to soar. Would the cause the dollar to rise much, especially if you still have problems with the economy and the banking system? Quote: Or the next worldwide recession, perhaps. That seems more probable, IMO. Quote: Or even the easing of tensions in Iran and Iraq. All kinds of possibilities. Yes, unless "peak oil" is closer than we think. I hope we're not. Back to top   Ads Advertising Sponsor Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First         Investing Talk Forum Index -> Mutual Funds All times are GMT Page 1 of 1   Jump to: Select a forum Investing Talk----------------Investing Talk-- MarketMutual FundsFutures - OptionsTechnical Analysis  You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum 246 Attacks blocked Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group